In early March, my friend Jay Pelosky made a cogent case Why the World Needs a Weak Dollar. That was when the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) was very near its multi-year highs. Here was his main …
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MorningWord 6/28/16: Eyes Wide Shut
Prior to the Brexit vote last week in the UK, a Leave decision was not a major input for my cautious view in U.S. stocks (MorningWord 6/23/16: Cause I Don’t Want to Be… Anarchy). In hindsight, …
Continue readingMorningWord 6/27/16: How’s That Working Out For You? Being Clever?
The relative outperformance of U.S. stocks on Friday was interesting. You know the ol’ saying, the cleanest shirt on a dirty block (or something). This week you’ll see a parade of strategists, fund managers and …
Continue reading$HPE – Long Alternative
Yesterday I previewed Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s (HPE) fiscal Q2 results due after the close (read here), and concluded: [private] My View into the Print: HPE is a cheap stock trading about 8.5x expected 2016 eps …
Continue reading$PG – Currency Crests
When Proctor & Gamble (PG) reports their fiscal Q4 results in early August the company will likely print an eps decline of 10% for fiscal year 2016 with a 15% sales decline. The expected $65 …
Continue reading$WMT – Price Break
Shares of Walmart are having their worst day today since its February 18th 3% decline following Q4 results that capped their first annual sales decline since 1980, and guided down for the current fiscal year 2017 vs …
Continue reading$MMM Go Nuts
Event: tomorrow before the open 3M (MMM) reports Q1 results, the options market is implying about a $5.25 move in either direction, or about 3%. The average move one day post earnings over the last …
Continue readingMorningWord 4/13/16: The U.S. Dollar Holds the Key?!
The financial press likes to condense potential market catalysts down to this or that is the KEY to an upcoming event. For instance here are a few headlines I have seen or heard this week: …
Continue readingMorningWord 4/6/16: Get Shorty
This morning, Bloomberg reported on short interest in U.S. equity markets reaching levels not seen since 2008, with the suggestion that this could serve as a contrarian set up, quoting Fundstrat Global Advisor’s Thomas Lee, who opined: “There’s …
Continue readingMorningWord 3/29/16: Dollar In General
This morning in the WSJ’s Streetwise column, James McKintosh succinctly summed up the bi-polar behavior of investors in risk assets over the last last couple months (The Markets Have a Message: Don’t Believe This Rally): Worries …
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