Event: FedEx (FDX) reports their fiscal Q1 results tonight after the close. The options market is implying nearly a 5% post earnings move tomorrow in either direction, which is shy of the 4 qtr one day average …
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MorningWord 9/14/16: Basket of Predictables
Will they? Won’t they? The financial press (and it seems the political press too) can’t stop with this. Yep, because it’s election season, everyone is playing the guessing game on a possible Fed rate hike …
Continue readingEat My Shorts: Checking in on FEZ, XOP, HYG
In the last month and change we’ve focused some short delta ideas that have some similar themes (e.g. increased chances of recession Europe post Brexit). We expressed those views in 3 etfs in particular that …
Continue readingMorningWord 7/15/16: Promenade Monde
I don’t have much to add about the horrific attack in Nice last night. It saddens me as it saddens you. In the immediate aftermath of 9/11 the world grappled with the threat of large scale, …
Continue readingMeet the new boss, Same as the old boss – FEZ
We’ll be fighting in the streets With our children at our feet And the morals that they worship will be gone And the men who spurred us on Sit in judgement of all wrong They …
Continue readingMorningWord 7/14/16: I became insane, with long intervals of horrible sanity.
I had been skeptical of the S&P 500 (SPX) ability to make a new high and establish a new range above the prior highs. It has done that now. And any the confirmation of the …
Continue readingBofA – BAC Pain
A couple of weeks ago we expressed our gloomy view of U.S. bank stocks with a put purchase in Bank of America (BAC ) expiring in August. We chose that expiration because it captures BAC’s …
Continue readingMorningWord 7/6/16: Another Vicious Cycle
I wanted to highlight a few interesting reads from the last couple days. I think these are fairly important for U.S. investors looking at the relative strength of U.S. stocks and the yield differential between our …
Continue reading$BAC Off
Regular readers are familiar with my views on bank stocks (from April here and early June here). Given the weakness of most into and out of the Brexit vote late last week we took the opportunity …
Continue readingTrade Update – $XLF Rolling Down Sept Puts
Back in early April I laid out my bearish view on U.S. banks stocks (XLF – Bank Shot), It was largely based on comparison to the price action of their European peers, and the reasons …
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