The nearly 2% decline for the S&P 500 (SPX) in October was its first monthly decline since February (down 41 bps) and worst since January’s 5% decline. I have no idea if the SPX is merely consolidating above …
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Microsoft (MSFT) – Small Window?
Three weeks ago we made the case that before this market rally is all said and done, there is a very strong likelihood that shares of Microsoft (MSFT) will make a new all time high: …
Continue readingUpdate – Golddigger (GDX)
Two weeks ago on August 24th we took a look at GDX, the Vaneck Vectors Gold Miners etf, on one of its worst down days it had seen in months. We laid out a scenario where …
Continue readingMorningWord 9/7/16: High (Low) Times
Being wrong about the direction of a stock, or a market is part of this business. What I have found in my nearly two decades trading in financial markets is that embracing the fact that …
Continue readingMorningWord 9/2/16: Goldilocks is still Sleeping
In case you missed it before your holiday weekend sign-off, the August non-farm payrolls came in below expectations at 151,000 jobs added (vs 180,000 consensus), well below the 2016 average of 182,000 and well below the …
Continue readingMorningWord 8/17/16: Rates of Change
At 2pm this afternoon the Federal Reserve will release the Minutes from their July FOMC meeting. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser to Allianz, had an insightful preview this morning for Bloomberg View (here). El-Erian concluded his list of what to …
Continue readingMorningWord 7/13/16: You Better Check Yourself Before You Wreck Yourself
New all time highs in the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU) have done the financial world the pleasure of anointing a whole new generation of market wizards. Myself? I have …
Continue readingMorningWord 6/29/16: Why Are You Still Here?
Leader of the U.K. Independence Party and guy who led the charge for the Leave vote, Nigel Farage, took his Muppet Show on the road to EU headquarters in Brussels yesterday. Farage agreed to an …
Continue readingMorningWord 6/10/16: Sovereign Supernova In the Sky
Some day you will find me Caught beneath the landslide In a champagne supernova in the sky Oasis Last night while sitting on set of CNBC’s Fast Money I got the following text from my main …
Continue readingBig Printin’ $TLT: Shaken, Not Stirred
On May 20th we laid out out bullish view for U.S. Treasury bonds, expressing it with a Risk Reversal in September expiration (Must Yield to Fedestrians). Here was the trade an rationale: TLT ($130) Buy …
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