MorningWord 11/01/16: October Disguises

November 1, 2016 by Dan • Morning Word

The nearly 2% decline for the S&P 500 (SPX) in October was its first monthly decline since February (down 41 bps) and worst since January’s 5% decline. I  have no idea if the SPX is merely consolidating above …

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Microsoft (MSFT) – Small Window?

October 20, 2016 by riskreversal • Trades and Updates

Three weeks ago we made the case that before this market rally is all said and done, there is a very strong likelihood that shares of Microsoft (MSFT) will make a new all time high: …

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Update – Golddigger (GDX)

September 7, 2016 by CC • Trades and Updates

Two weeks ago on August 24th we took a look at GDX, the Vaneck Vectors Gold Miners etf, on one of its worst down days it had seen in months. We laid out a scenario where …

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MorningWord 9/7/16: High (Low) Times

by Dan • Morning Word

Being wrong about the direction of a stock, or a market is part of this business. What I have found in my nearly two decades trading in financial markets is that embracing the fact that …

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MorningWord 9/2/16: Goldilocks is still Sleeping

September 2, 2016 by Dan • Morning Word

In case you missed it before your holiday weekend sign-off, the August non-farm payrolls came in below expectations at 151,000 jobs added (vs 180,000 consensus), well below the 2016 average of 182,000 and well below the …

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MorningWord 8/17/16: Rates of Change

August 17, 2016 by Dan • Morning Word

At 2pm this afternoon the Federal Reserve will release the Minutes from their July FOMC meeting. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser to Allianz, had an insightful preview this morning for Bloomberg View (here).  El-Erian concluded his list of what to …

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Big Printin’ $TLT: Shaken, Not Stirred

June 9, 2016 by Dan • Commentary

On May 20th we laid out out bullish view for U.S. Treasury bonds, expressing it with a Risk Reversal in September expiration (Must Yield to Fedestrians). Here was the trade an rationale: TLT ($130) Buy …

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