Yesterday the S&P 500 (SPX) did something it has not done since October 2008 when global markets were in the throes of the worst economic and market crisis since the Great Depression, it closed down …
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Expectations for a Fed Funds rate increase at the November 2nd FOMC meeting aren’t particularity high at only about a 19%. For all intents and purposes, this might as well be zero, especially just 6 days …
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The bond market is closed today for Columbus Day, but the TLT (iShares 20 year Treasury bond etf) is down a little less than 1%, suggesting that yields would be up a bit. The etf …
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This morning I had some thoughts on interest rates (MorningWord 9/14/16: Basket of Predictables). To recap, I don’t think they are going meaningfully higher anytime soon. Maybe we get back to 2.25% in the 10 …
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A little less than a month ago when the TLT. the iShares 20 year U.S. Treasury bond etf was trading $130, I expressed a bullish view on bonds, bearish view on yields in the etf …
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On May 20th we laid out out bullish view for U.S. Treasury bonds, expressing it with a Risk Reversal in September expiration (Must Yield to Fedestrians). Here was the trade an rationale: TLT ($130) Buy …
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Just a few weeks ago, when odds of a June or July rate hike spiked on FOMC minutes that indicated a willingness for a Summer rate hike, we made the argument that it was more …
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You know the drill by now, Fed Fund futures went from pricing about a 4% chance of the Fed raising interest rates for the first time since December 2015, and only the second time since …
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Last week in this space (MorningWord 5/5/16: Bail Bonds – $TLT) I had some thoughts on the direction of U.S. Treasury yields (below). Regular readers know that I have been fairly steadfast in my belief that the U.S. Federal …
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Raoul Pal, the founder of the Global Macro Investor, is one of the few guests we have on CNBC’s Fast Money program that connects macro dots back to the stock market in a way that even a monkey …
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