Remember the Taper Tantrum in 2013? Seems like a distant memory. But the U.S. Fed floated the trial balloon that they would start tapering bond purchases from their QE highs of about $85 billion a …
Continue readingXLE – Oil Change
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MorningWord 10/17/16: Crank Up the Crazy and Rip Off the Knob
It’s been my view for some time that on top of the large list of risks to an already fragile U.S. economy (if we entered a prolonged recession, it would result in a sustained period of …
Continue readingProcter & Gamble (PG) – Putting it Back in the Tube
The bond market is closed today for Columbus Day, but the TLT (iShares 20 year Treasury bond etf) is down a little less than 1%, suggesting that yields would be up a bit. The etf …
Continue readingPepsi Challenged? – Q3 Earnings Preview
Event: Pepsi (PEP) is scheduled to report its Q3 results Thursday morning prior to the open. The options market is implying about a 2%* one day post earnings move which is rich to the 4 …
Continue readingEnergy Bar – XLE
In case you missed the headline: *WTI CRUDE CLOSES IN BULL MARKET, UP 22% FROM EARLY AUGUST LOW – Bloomberg That was a fairly epic short term bounce right from the nice round number and level …
Continue readingMorningWord 8/17/16: Rates of Change
At 2pm this afternoon the Federal Reserve will release the Minutes from their July FOMC meeting. Mohamed El-Erian, Chief Economic Adviser to Allianz, had an insightful preview this morning for Bloomberg View (here). El-Erian concluded his list of what to …
Continue readingProcter & Gamble (PG) Fiscal Q4 Preview
Event: Procter & Gamble (PG) report fiscal Q4 results tomorrow before the opening bell. The options market is implying about a 2.5% one day post earnings move vs its 4 quarter one day average move …
Continue readingGame of Risk – HYG
Having just broken out to new all time highs, the S&P 500 (SPX) is up 6.25% on the year, and up 20% from its 2016 lows at 1810, made on February 11th. It’ now 6.5% …
Continue readingUUP Up and Away?
Depending on your world view, the U.S. dollar has either been range bound in the last year, with the U.S. dollar index trading between $100 on the upside and $92.50 on the downside, with the 200 day moving …
Continue reading$PEP Q2 Earnings Preview & Stock Alternative
Event: Pepsi (PEP) will report Q2 results tomorrow morning before the open. The options market is implying only a 2% one day post earnings move in either direction, which is rich to the 4 qtr …
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